Is everyday causation deterministic or probabilistic?
نویسندگان
چکیده
One view of causation is deterministic: A causes B means that whenever A occurs, B occurs. An alternative view is that causation is probabilistic: the assertion means that given A, the probability of B is greater than some criterion, such as the probability of B given not-A. Evidence about the induction of causal relations cannot readily decide between these alternative accounts, and so we examined how people refute causal assertions. In four experiments most participants judged that a single counterexample of A and not-B refuted assertions of the form, A causes B. And, as a deterministic theory based on mental models predicted, participants were more likely to request multiple refutations for assertions of the form, A enables B. Similarly, refutations of the form not-A and B were more frequent for enabling than causal assertions. Causation in daily life seems to be a deterministic concept.
منابع مشابه
Deterministic Causation
This paper is the most complete presentation of my views on deterministic causation. It develops the deterministic theory in perfect parallel to my theory of probabilistic causation and thus unites the two aspects. It also argues that the theory presented is superior to all regularity and all counterfactual theories of causation.
متن کاملImplicational Scaling of Reading Comprehension Construct: Is it Deterministic or Probabilistic?
In English as a Second Language Teaching and Testing situations, it is common to infer about learners’ reading ability based on his or her total score on a reading test. This assumes the unidimensional and reproducible nature of reading items. However, few researches have been conducted to probe the issue through psychometric analyses. In the present study, the IELTS exemplar module C (1994) wa...
متن کاملCausation in epidemiology.
Causation is an essential concept in epidemiology, yet there is no single, clearly articulated definition for the discipline. From a systematic review of the literature, five categories can be delineated: production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic. Strengths and weaknesses of these categories are examined in terms of proposed characteristics of...
متن کاملIs Causation Probabilistic?
One view of causation is deterministic: A causes B means that on any occasion in which A occurs, B occurs. An alternative view is that causation is probabilistic: it means that given A, the probability of B is greater than some criterion, such as the probability of B given not A. Evidence about the induction of causal relations cannot decide between these two accounts, and so we examined how pe...
متن کاملA Proposed Probabilistic Extension of the Halpern and Pearl Definition of ‘Actual Cause’
Joseph Halpern and Judea Pearl ([2005]) draw upon structural equation models to develop an attractive analysis of 'actual cause'. Their analysis is designed for the case of deterministic causation. I show that their account can be naturally extended to provide an elegant treatment of probabilistic causation. 1Introduction2Preemption3Structural Equation Models4The Halpern and Pearl Definition of...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Acta psychologica
دوره 137 3 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2011